NFL 2024 season predictions
Hope you are ready for the most unbearable Super Bowl storylines ever.
I wrote the other day, at the end of my long piece on a Radical Ordinary politics, that I hoped to make this space a little more wide ranging, reflecting my own varied interests. Sports is one of those interests that I’ll probably be writing about more, because I always have Opinions, especially about my teams. Should you care about my sports opinions? That’s debatable, but this is my space, and I get to choose what I write about, so here we are. So, with that said…
Football season is upon us! The Premier League is well underway! We are less than two months from the NBA returning! NASCAR playoffs start in a week! It looks like we might actually have drivers and constructor’s championship battles in Formula One this year!
I’ll write about all of those at various points probably, as they are the sports I follow most closely. For reference, the teams I cheer for are the Green Bay Packers (NFL), Tottenham Hotspur (PL), the Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA). I’ll write more about my auto racing fandom in the future. And I do cheer for the Northwestern Wildcats in college sports, but that is more targeted; I don’t generally follow college football and basketball on a broader basis than the Big Ten.
One thing I’ve always loved in sports is predictions. I really like making predictions. I’m not often right. But it serves as a good exercise for me in preparing for sports seasons to make some picks, and then see how they turn out. So, to that end, with the NFL season starting less than a week from now, here are my picks for football this year, along with some comments on those picks.
For my predictions, I used the great Playoff Predictors website; you can find my detailed week-to-week picks here. I visualized them via the Pro Football Network predictor tool, which is cleaner for sharing.
The most important question to ask is, am I a huge homer? Yes, yes I am. But also, I genuinely think the Packers are going to be really good this year. More importantly, I think only one other team in the NFC is really, really good. I think there are some good teams - San Fran, Philly - but I don’t think any of those are going to be anything exceptional. Both are teams that I think are on the back side of their runs as elite teams, and will show cracks this year, mostly because you can only keep a good team together so long under the salary cap, and they have both already started shedding important pieces. Green Bay, on the other hand, is likely the most potent offense in the league, and the team worked hard this off season to address their holes on defense. I’m probably banking a lot of hope here, but I think the window is wide open in Title Town, and this team has to take advantage of a soft schedule and the open nature of the conference. Detroit is the only team that gives me pause, and honestly I was back-and-forth on which one to have as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. The Lions definitely got better this off season, they were in the NFC title game last year, and they don’t really have any holes. So why did I pick the Packers over them, other than the fact that I’m a hack and a Packers stan? It all came down to schedule; the way I played it out, Green Bay gets the division, the home field, and thus the advantage. I just can’t see Detroit going into Green Bay in January in the playoffs and winning. I’m probably going to regret this pick; Detroit is the NFC favorite, and should be. But, I’m zagging here and hopefully I’m rewarded for it.
In the AFC, I really think Kansas City got even better this summer, but I just think the evidence is overwhelming that three-peating is really, really hard. The odds are against them, and that’s why I picked against them, even if I don’t feel good about that. I really think they are the best team in the league still. I really like Houston, and I originally picked them to go to the Super Bowl, but they are very young, and I’d like to CJ Stroud do it again this year first. I may regret that hesitation, but that’s where I am. I like both Baltimore and Cincy a lot, but I have some hesitations around both teams on defense that hold me back from picking. That leaves the Jets, and a Packers fan I’m sure you can imagine my distaste at picking them. First of all, a Rodgers-vs-Packers Super Bowl is just way too good to be true from a storylines perspective. Nothing ever works out that well. But, if Rodgers can stay healthy, this team is really really good. That defense if elite. The offensive weapons are elite, especially Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. And, even through my personal annoyance with his whole shtick, Aaron Rodgers has yet to show that, when he is healthy, he isn’t one of the best quarterbacks in the league still. Now, maybe this year will be the decline that inevitably comes, coming off an Achilles injury as he is. Or, maybe he gets injured again, something that has a decent likeliness, given his history. But, if Rodgers is healthy, this team should be elite. And so, we get that juicy Super Bowl matchup, and to be real, the Jets would probably be the favorites. But, I can’t bring myself to pick them over GB in that scenario.
A few other teams of note I have opinions on:
I think the Chargers will be noticeably better under Jim Harbaugh, who will be able to actually bring the good out of Justin Herbert. The team is just short on talent, and still a year or two away from that patented Harbaugh turnaround.
Buffalo will take a step back, and miss the playoffs. They have bled a lot of talent over the last couple of years, and missed their window with those heartbreaking losses to KC in the playoffs. Sorry, Bills Mafia.
I don’t feel good about picking Pittsburgh to be so bad, considering the track record of coach Mike Tomlin. But, that schedule is tough. And those other three teams in their division are good. I’m probably going to regret that pick.
I like Jacksonville, and they just barely missed out on the playoffs. I think this is the year Trevor Lawrence shows something really good. The rest of that roster is rough, though.
I was surprised Chicago jumped into the playoffs, but they are a much improved team, especially on offense. Expect exciting things on the lake shore this year. No, I’m not happy to type that, as a Packers fan.
I am happy to type that Minnesota is going to be really bad, especially with JJ McCarthy out for the year. Bye, Vikings.
I’m excited about Jaden Daniels, and I believe Washington will be a much improved, exciting team to watch. They are on the upswing for sure.
Dallas, on the other hand, is bleeding talent, and I think Mike McCarthy’s days are numbered. Jerry Jones has really done a number on the Boys with his refusal to hire a real GM, and the games he felt he needed to play with the team’s best skill player in Ceedee Lamb. Expect a big step back for them this year, despite how good I think Dak Prescott is. Who is gonna help him and Lamb on offense?
I didn’t really know what to do with any of these teams: Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, or New Orleans. They all feel stuck in 2018 or so, and I just don’t know what the vision is. Hence, they are all middling teams who could win, or lose, literally any game they play.
Seattle will be good. Arizona is getting better. And Atlanta has too much talent to languish another year, especially with a real QB in Kirk Cousins.
Where am I wrong? What team am I overestimating, and who am I ignoring? Am I just a terrible homer? Leave your thoughts, and your own predictions, in the comments!