2025-26 NBA Season Predictions
It’s NBA tipoff day!
I love the NBA; it is far and away my favorite professional sport to follow. I have been eagerly anticipating the start to this season, as I do each season, basically since Boston raised the Larry O’Brian Trophy back in June. I listen to too many NBA podcasts, I watch as many games as I can (although I haven’t pulled the trigger on League Pass…yet), and I just generally try to take in as much NBA content as I can, especially once the playoffs get here.
Being in Oklahoma, I am a big OKC Thunder fan. I moved to Oklahoma City the same year the Thunder did, so my entire adult life has been spent alongside them. From the KD-Russ-Harden Finals run, to Triple-Double MVP Russ and PG13, to the fallow rebuild years, and now with this new young squad centered about SGA, Chet and JDub, this has never been a boring team to follow. In fact, the Thunder navigated life as a small-market team (perhaps THE smallest market team) as well as anyone could, and most of that is down to the amazing front office management of Sam Presti. And, this years team is really exciting, the most excited I’ve been about a Thunder teams’ playoff prospects probably since the heartbreaking WCF run of 2016 (the less said about that, and the following summer, the better.)
So, you won’t be surprised to find OKC as one-half of my Finals prediction here (my status as an unapologetic homer has been hashed out here previously, in my NFL season preview.) But, I tempered myself, and have them falling in the Finals to Boston, who I think becomes the first team to go back-to-back since Golden State did it nearly a decade ago. Do I really think, in my superfan heart, that OKC isn’t going to win the title this year? Of course not, this is one-hundred-percent Our Year. But, my head is trying to temper that fandom, so hence my pic.
And it’s not a bad one! Boston was historically great last year, at least by the numbers. They have two top-15 talents, and all five of their starters are top-50 (top-40?) guys in the league. They are stacked, they have a coach who has proved himself to be great, and they are coming off a summer that, I think, stoked their hunger to repeat. No championship hangover for these guys.
Before I comment on other teams, here are my predictions:
And my playoffs:
A few notes on various teams:
The race for the top of the west is going to be fun, similar to last year’s three-way race between OKC, Denver and Minnesota. Throw in Dallas, and its even better. That said, I think odds are good that OKC runs away with the 1 seed, and the real battle is for 2-4 (and especially to avoid that 4 seed.) I think Denver bounces back this year, and Minnesota will take a step back, because I think Anthony Edwards will take a slight step back (some of that thanks to the dubious addition of Julius Randle.)
Dallas will be really good coming off their Finals run, and Luka is my pick for MVP this year. My biggest debate was their Round 2 matchup with Denver; that could seriously go either way.
Phoenix and Memphis will both safely be in the playoffs; I think both teams will be good regular season teams barring any major injuries/suspensions.
New Orleans has the most variance of any Western team in my view, outside of maybe Houston. If Zion is fit and healthy, and they incorporate Dejounte Murray smoothly, this team is as talented as any in the league. On the other hand, if Zion is unhealthy again and Dejounte and Brandon Ingram clash over usage, they could be out of the play-in all together. At that point, it may be time to blow it up in New Orleans. I’m cautiously optimistic, because I am still holding a lot of Zion stock.
I think the Lakers are a .500 team, because I think they have the least depth of almost any team in the league. I love Lebron, but he’s 40 years old, and can’t carry this team. I hope they prove me wrong. I doubt they will.
Golden State will barely miss the play-in, just because of the depth of the West. Their roster is decent, but if Steph misses any time or Draymond does Draymond things, the margins are just to small.
Like the West, the race for 2-4 in the East should be exciting. I really like Cleveland with Kenny Atkinson opening up that offense, and hopefully making Evan Mobley into something resembling a star. Him and Donovan Mitchell are two of my favorite players in the league, and I’m excited about what this team could be, in theory.
Milwaukee is due for a bounce back. They are old, and they don’t have a lot of depth. They have to address those things, hopefully during the season. But the combination of Giannis, Dame, and Doc is worth something. I am staking my self on believing in them. That could look really dumb.
I really liked that New York team last year. I was even more excited about the Villanova Knicks when they brought Bridges over from Brooklyn this summer. Then, they ruined it all by ditching Donte DiVincenzo (one of my five favorite players in the league, not joking at all) and Julius Randle for KAT, who….is not one of my five favorite players in the league. At all. We’ll see how it goes. I’m not optimistic, and that’s too bad.
I’m out on Philly, and specifically, Joel Embiid. Wake me up when he stays healthy and shows up in the playoffs. All the talking is too much for me. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’m actually really excited about the prospects of that East Play-In, or at least 3/4s of it (Atlanta continues to be a big meh from me, mostly due to how down I am on Trey as a winning player.) Indiana may have the best offense in the league, thanks to Tyrese Halliburton, who is one of my favorite players. Miami is going to be good, if the hype around Jimmy’s seriousness and Bam’s budding 3-point shot it real, and I like Charlotte as a breakout team, mostly thanks to what I am anticipating as the emergence of Brandon Miller.
The bottom of the East is going to be really bad. Expect lots of tanking out East (and in Portland and Utah) for the Cooper Flag sweepstakes.
There it is! Let the best time of the year commence!